The Bull 🐂 is yet to mature!

So here we are today with Sensex cruising past 60000 and Nifty almost on the verge of being an adult at 18000. This has been a fantastic run from the March’20 bottom and I’d argue that this Bull will run miles before it sleeps.

Imagine this scenario- markets are at life highs, people are making money and portfolios are climbing up each day; IPO subscriptions are beyond belief and India story is getting noticed again. What do you think market participants and men on the main Street should be doing? You’d say they’d be celebrating onset of this prosperity and running over each other to invest money. Well, this is not what’s happening. Everyone and his aunt are waiting, if not praying for a correction. Everybody, except a miniscule minority is doubtful of this Bull Run.

A Bull Market has four stages- Pessimism when people claim that the world is coming to an end and markets are going down to zero. This is what we witnessed in March-June 2020. The Bull takes its birth right at this point of maximum despondency. The next phase is when the market moves up higher, makes higher highs and every dip is bought while nobody’s watching. This is beginning of the second phase of Skepticism. I remember this vividly when people around me were cocksure of a looming correction in well, July 20, August 20, Diwali 20, January 2021, March 2021, lockdown 2.0, June 21, and now they’re predicting, ergh almost praying for one at Diwali 2021. This is when Market has coolly cruised past 60000. A large chunk of those who’ve missed this massive rally are now trying to justify their genius by making the one’s who made money believe that this is a false bull run and we’re in for a massive drop. This is like the liberals terming Modi’s victory as a fraud on democracy. Plain vanilla- Bullshit!

A Bull Market climbs many a walls of Skepticism. The third phase is of acceptance. This is when everyone with cash who has missed this rally will give up and invest to participate and give this run legitimacy. That’s when headlines will change- India will shine again( in Media), growth rate predictions will go up, panelists will cheer the resilience of our economy, new acronyms like BRICS will be coined and India will be touted as the next land of milk and honey. Everyone will make money and be happy about it. Stocks will be the best thing ever and the prosperity

I’m a firm believer that this is a multi year mega Bull run which will make a lot of people wealthy beyond their dreams. This is the second time in past 40 years when India’s economy and markets have bottomed out together. This was the case in 2003-04 in India and 1980-81in US which were both followed by massive runs in economy as well as markets.

Remember- it’s not a Bull run if you’ve to justify it.

PS: I’m so happy that the view which I’ve held all this while was so eloquently articulated by RJ himself in his latest interview with BT Today.