Today I have so much to talk about. You live for days like this in markets when a gap up is not filled and markets make higher highs, stocks participate further and your favourites are on the top of the charts. Today’s move has buried all the bear talks, of people calling it a fake-out instead of a breakout and what not.
Bulls on the street are always seen as the lesser mortals- for they dismiss the macro mumbo-jumbo as nonsense which is exactly what it is. Bears on the other hands come across as the intellectualised lot- they will tell you the hundred reasons for why stocks are expensive, market is going down and the economy is collapsing. They will throw in numbers- GDP, exports. GST, money supply, inflation, PE ratios and everything else to sound somber. Well, it defies common sense that when in the end the maximum money is made when markets go up, why does people believe the bullshit!
So now that we are experiencing a renewed bull run, it’s not going away in a hurry. The last time Nifty broke out of the 12000 mark, it went up 50% before catching a breath. My best case is that Nifty is poised for at least a 25-27K move. This is the time when networths move, when portfolios quadruple and maximum money is made. I remain 110% invested and the stocks I own are slowly moving to not for sale basket.
BSE had its first breakout today when it closed above the pre bonus 2000₹ mark. Last time it was up there was in Sep 2022 and the trigger is the latest buyback news. I’ve maintained that the management of BSE is fantastically liberal- they dole out 95% of profits as dividends and announce liberal buy backs. The cash they own is almost 3000cr plus and is 35% of the today’s market cap. So just like Apple became a $3T company and the worlds best buyback stock. I will not be surprised if BSE goes up 10x in this decade with a much better business model and hefty dividend yield. It’s finally making the right noise in equity derivatives with month on month growth of 10x and on the last Friday, it captured as much as 5% of the total market share! HPX is doing a fantastic stuff in power market and the proof of that pudding is in IEX’s price- it is languishing at multi year lows in a roaring bull market.
TaMo might have missed on hitting the lifetime highs but that’s only a part of the story. Long time back, in an earlier blog, I had mentioned that Tesla makes a lot of its money by selling carbon credits. That market has just been approved in India. So TaMo with 85% plus market share in an ever growing electric car market will be a prime beneficiary by selling credits to all the supposedly polluting companies- the coal mining types.
Well, my bet on TaMo is on one more dimension. I’m looking forward for a day when India will contribute to its top line just like China does today. It won’t be a surprise if it begins to sell 10k cars in India every month for what beautiful, absolutely sexy cars it makes. Anyone who doesn’t find a Jaguar Hot or a Defender stunning or a Range Rover exotic is either a liar or blind or both.
India is going through the same moment which China had in the early 2000s. Our economy is firing on all cylinders and unless we collectively screw ourselves in 2024, we have a stable government at the centre for a foreseeable future. The biggest risk in this market is the risk of not investing! The bull is back, and it’s running! Are you?
Life is all about Compounding! 