It’s been four years into the markets for me and one thing which fascinates me beyond limit is the kind of specie which is most visible. An expert is not a homogeneous group but a proper bureaucracy. The guy with least money and most opinion is at the bottom and as he rises up the ladder, the situation reverses.
In this organisation, right at the bottom of the pyramid is retail investor- the hapless guy who’s happy making 10% on his 10000 Rs and is forever diffident. To serve this guy, and to advice guys with millions, the first point of advice is our CNBC and Zee Business. You switch on any business channel at 7AM on a working day and you have a bunch of busy looking people selling you everything from sugar to banks to chemicals to what not. And they also have an acceptable hierarchy amongst them. The lead guy, let’s say Anuj or Anil Singhvi sits at the top of pyramid and people around them defer to them almost to the point of reverence. At times when they speak, their colleagues gasp almost as if having an orgasm- Wah Sir, kya bola hai Sir!
Add to this some obese, bald guys or some really well dressed girls and you have an entire buffet of experts serving news and ofcourse, expert opinion. Thankfully, that guy selling H2B2 has recently been barred by SEBI for securities fraud and we don’t have to suffer his foolishness anymore. His current successor is that chartist on CNBC serving third rate shayri which sounds straight from the minds of a tiktok-er.
The next level of experts are the paid chartists and supposedly fundamental experts, serving an advice a minute with opinion on everything from sugar to aluminium to NPA problem to general election and interest rate to Venezuela. The most interesting situation is when the guy goes right, they also play clap music.
Then enter the market veterans, whose networth can be sized by the exclusivity they get on Air. If it’s a daily routine for them to serve calls, they aren’t bigshots. The real biggies are the ones who caveat everything with” we don’t discuss specific stocks” and end up telling us why should we buy exactly the stocks they already own in their portfolio.
Of these, a few are worth mentioning. This guy Saurabh Mukerjea has been around selling stocks and books for about 6-7 years. I first remember him heaping praises on Page and Eicher and how the entire country was going to wear Jockey and ride an Enfield so we must buy them in mid 20000s a share. When Page turned back and Eicher slowed down,he concocted his thesis to say how Indians only drink Nescafe and Asian Paint there houses so buy them. Currently he is also selling Relaxo and Alkyl Amine. If Indians rich enough to buy Enfields are now lining up to buy Relaxo ,I don’t know if we are growing rich or going bankrupt as a nation.This, is basically momentum chasing intellectualised to the power infinity. You keep buying stocks which are going up, with other people’s money and sound cool while doing so.
My limited point is this- Investing is serious business. Don’t get fooled by some smart sounding guy who is cocksure in his predictions. The flip point to all this is that in this world, any serious investor can learn so much from listening to the real experts- guys who have made real big money and are happy sharing their views for free for people like me. The key is to choose your Gods carefully. And ofcourse, to avoid mixing this up with a casino. You have won half your battle if you aren’t greedy and ninety percent of the remaining half if you have patience. Investing is all about trying to make ten-twelve percent a year, without losing capital over ten,twenty years and leading a better life. Till then, watch experts as your guilt pleasure- like I do!
Life is all about Compounding! 